Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 142341
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A slow moving upper-level low is meandering northeast through Kansas
based on latest satellite and radar imagery. This is resulting in
isolated to scattered showers over southern Missouri to
slowly lift northward. This trend will continue tonight and arranged
PoPs to build north from late this afternoon through the overnight.
Chances still look rather low and have kept PoPs below 30% through
the night and into the day Wednesday. Short-range higher resolution
models, like the WRF-ARW and NMM as well as the RUC and HRRR all show
relatively spotty shower activity through the night. But overall,
isolated to scattered showers are expected to build northward tonight
and then shift east through the day tomorrow as the upper-level low
opens up and moves away to the east.

The focus will then shift to the large upper-level trough building
into the Intermountain West. First, there is considerable
uncertainty with how this system will evolve and this is mainly due
to the potential for it to cut off and get stuck between the polar
jet to the north and the subtropical jet to the south. This is the
scenario the ECMWF and the GEM depict. However, GFS is not as strong
with the cutting off and as a result pushes east quicker. That said,
it looks like this system will remain to our west through at least
the end of the week, and possibly into the early part of next week,
allowing for southerly low-level flow to build moisture northward.
This means we`ll see the chances for showers and thunderstorms
through much, if not all of, the extended portion of the forecast.
It doesn`t look like we`ll see any widespread precipitation on any
given day, rather isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Additionally, the threat of severe weather looks low for our area as
there never really seems to be aligning of instability with
stronger shear.

Regarding temperatures, with increased cloud coverage/ precipitation
potential for each day, highs look to be fairly close to normal with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Later in the period, as
the upper low is expected to be closer to the region, temperatures
may top out in the mid to upper 60s. The normal high for the Kansas
City area through this period is in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the fcst period
with -SHRA chances increasing after the 6z time frame. For the most
part...developing -SHRA activity will present limited if any VSBY
restrictions. The main concern however will be decreasing CIGS during
the early morning hrs with all indications suggesting widespread MVFR
after 12z. For now...have begun trending downward with CIGS during
the second half of the fcst period with little improvement expected
through the day as main upper wave slowly lifts northeast through the
area. Winds to remain from the east and southeast between 6-12 kts
through the fcst period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...32





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