Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
408 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

Much quieter conditions have settled in across the forecast area
today as the region sits on the back edge of an upper trough axis
and reflective surface low that has moved through. Tight pressure
gradient and dominant northwesterly flow has created gusty, breezy
conditions this afternoon, expected to diminish after sunset with
the loss of diurnal heating and as the pressure gradient loosens
its grip overhead. Surface high currently over the southern Plains
will graze past to the south through mid-week, allowing for lower-
end PoP chances to enter into the southern third of the forecast
area in the latter half of tomorrow through early Wednesday on its
periphery. Aided by some moisture advecting in, a vort max
cruising through, and convergence/confluent zone setting up,
ingredients are seemingly coming together for decent confidence in
precip chances across central MO. The better chances look to
remain generally south of a line from around Harrisonville and far
east-central KS through Sedalia but could see some pop-ups up
through the I-70 corridor. Some rumbles of thunder will be a
possibility.

Next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives early Friday
through Saturday as low pressure system ejecting out of the
central Rockies traverses across the Plains. The GFS and ECMWF are
in disagreement as to where it`ll end up tracking as the GFS gives
it a southern path whereas the ECMWF brings it right across
central MO. For the rest of the weekend, model differences grow
increasingly more obvious but general agreement depicts another
opportunity of rain chances for the end of the weekend into early
next week.

Overall, temperatures will be seasonable throughout this forecast
period with another cool afternoon anticipated on Wednesday as a
reinforcing shot of cooler air gets pulled into the region from
the north. Overnight lows will run below normal for this time of
year, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s tonight through
Wednesday night, warming into more widespread 40s toward the end
of this week through the weekend. While the frost potential is
not an immediate threat for tonight, those with agricultural
concerns should continue to monitor the latest forecasts through
the middle of this week, particularly for any sensitive vegetation
that may have already been planted.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

Prevailing VFR conditions throughout the TAF period at all four
terminals. Lower-level clouds under NW flow aloft has taken over
the skies today but as the terminals remain on the edge of the
cloudiness, should primarily remain SCT throughout the rest of the
afternoon. Breezy and gusty NW winds will continue through sunset
this evening, subsiding after dark with the loss of daytime
heating as well as the departure of a low pressure system that had
affected the region over the weekend. For tonight through early
Tuesday, look for some mid-level clouds to move in and winds to
become more westerly.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...lg
AVIATION...lg





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