Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 040511
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1211 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WERE TO REALIGN POPS...WX & QPF
TO WITH ANTICIPATED FRONTAL POSITIONING. AT 9 PM CDT...THE FRONT
CURVED FROM CENTRAL IA TO ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH
CENTRAL KS BORDER TO JUST S OF KGLD. WITH W/SW MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ALMOST DUE WESTERLY...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KS THEN DEVELOPING E/NE ALONG THE STALLING
FRONT WOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL KS THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE MODEST CONVECTION ADVANCING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD CENTRAL KS AS
REST OF THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CLIPPING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY DAY WILL
BE ON TAP FOR KANSAS ON MONDAY...WITH A BETTER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD ONCE AGAIN AFFECT
CENTRAL KANSAS AS COLD POOLS FROM THE INITIAL CONVECTION EXPAND
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER WITH THE STEERING WINDS MORE FROM THE SOUTH
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NORTH. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
RICHER MOISTURE BOOSTING THE INSTABILITY...BUT WEAKER SHEAR ALOFT
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION.

MEANWHILE...LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST LINE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY AND EJECT OUT
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN KANSAS...AND
WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THIS PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE FOR THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SLIDE NORTHEAST OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE TAPERING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES. IF
THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FROM THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...MORE STORMS COULD RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WIND SHEAR ALOFT ACTUALLY
LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WELL DEVELOPED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THIS PERIOD...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM ALONG WITH RICH GULF
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER KANSAS. THIS SETUP WOULD CREATE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR KANSAS WITH EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...IF THIS PATTERN LOCKS IN AND THE SURFACE FRONT DOES
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA FLOODING COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC AT SOME
POINT AS WELL.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE TERMINAL DRAWING THE GREATEST ATTENTION FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT IS KRSL WHERE A VERY SLOW SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS ~50SM N OF
THE TERMINAL. SHRA/TSRA DVLPD ALG THE BOUNDARY & FROM 04Z-0445Z
THE TSRA BECAME QUITE STG BUT WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY ~05Z. SINCE
THEN SCT TSRA HAVE DVLPD OVER NW KS. SHORT-TERM PROGS DEPICT THE
FRONT STALLING JUST TO THE N OF KRSL BUT TO `AIR` ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION HAVE ASSIGNED "VCTS" TIL 08Z FOR TIME BEING. THERE SHOULD
BE NO FLIGHT HAZARDS THRU LATE MON AFTN ALTHO S WINDS ~17KTS/20MPH
SUSTAINED W/ GUSTS ~22KTS/25MPH ARE LKLY ACRS SC & SE KS B7 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  79  62  76 /  10  10  80  60
HUTCHINSON      61  78  60  77 /  20  20  80  50
NEWTON          60  79  60  76 /  10  10  80  60
ELDORADO        61  80  61  75 /  10  10  80  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  79  63  76 /  10  10  80  60
RUSSELL         59  77  59  79 /  50  50  70  50
GREAT BEND      59  76  58  79 /  40  50  70  40
SALINA          61  80  61  76 /  30  10  80  50
MCPHERSON       61  79  60  76 /  20  10  80  50
COFFEYVILLE     60  81  64  74 /  10  10  70  80
CHANUTE         59  81  63  74 /  10  10  70  80
IOLA            59  80  63  74 /  10  10  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    60  81  64  74 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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