Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260759
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE
MOISTENING SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE HIGHEST MEAN RH AND
850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA WILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL (.30
TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE ASCENT IS LESS
DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LESS WITH
THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER DROPPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...AS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UPHILL
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO IFR
CEILINGS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION.  COULD EVEN SEE SOME OCCASIONAL IFR
CIGS AT KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP.
EXPECT THIS IFR CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN AROUND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WITH THE CEILING HEIGHT GRADUALLY INCREASING
TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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