Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPDATED THE DAY 3 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER
STORY TO HIGHLIGHT AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PREVIOUS RUNS FOR AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN DETAIL YET TO BE RESOLVED IS THE NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY-LINE POSITION. THE GFS
REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE ON EACH FEATURE...WHICH RECENT
TRENDS AND BIAS SUGGEST MAY BE THE LESS CONFIDENT FORECAST.
THE NAM RETARDS THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE WARM FRONT INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A COMPROMISE
APPROACH WOULD SUPPORT LIFTING OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING PEAK HEATING ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GFS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST POSITION OF THE
DRY-LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE GREATER INSTABILITY
AND A HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
EARLIER DAY CONVECTION AND WARM SECTOR/FRONTAL POSITION...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT NONETHELESS TO SUPPORT
SEVERE CONVECTION AND ROTATING STORMS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BUBBLE ALONG OK BORDER WELL INTO
THE MORNING. MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL MIDDAY...BUT AFTERNOON HEATING
SHOULD RENEW THE CONVECTION ALONG THE OK BORDER...A BIT MORE
LIKELY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. ANTICIPATE THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY.

THU:
WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SMALL POPS GOING DURING THE DAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS/INCREASES LIKELY AIDED BY RIPPLE IN UPPER
FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY...BUT
COMBO OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE THU NIGHT OVER ALL THE AREA. COOL
AIR CONTINUES TO RECIRCULATE AROUND SURFACE HIGH...BUT CENTRAL KS
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES THERE...AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MAY WORK INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTION FOR A LATE
AFTERNOON RALLY.

FRI:
THIS PERIOD IS STILL QUITE TRICKY. MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE/LIFT
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING FRI MORNING. BEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 70S BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH DRYLINE LIKELY MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ECMWF/GFS HAVE AT LEAST BEEN STICKING TO THE SAME THEME
FOR SEVERAL RUNS WITH SMALLER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THEM. SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KS LOOKS DECENT BUT NORTHERN/EASTERN EXTENT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIATION...COMPARED TO GFS. BOTH SEEM FAIRLY CLOSE WITH EXITING
SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ON SAT-SUN. HOWEVER AFTER THAT
THINGS UNRAVEL. ECWMF IS A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER EJECTING CUT OFF
LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN US COMPARED GFS. AND THE GFS RAPIDLY DEEPENS
SURFACE LOW BY 1800 UTC MON OVER WESTERN OK...WHILE ECMWF IS MUCH
WEAKER BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEPENDING ON WHICH
VERIFIES. CONSENSUS WAS TO STICK WITH INITIALIZATION GRIDS...BUT
SUSPECT SLOWER/WEAKER ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CORRECT. THAT
WOULD RESULT IN LESS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MON-TUE...AND NOT
NEARLY AS WINDY. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL KEEP A DRY EAST TO
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THRU EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY ON
THURSDAY...THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO MANIFEST ITSELF INTO STRATOCU CIGS THAT WILL FLIRT AROUND
OR INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER WILL OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS
FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  46  64  52 /  20  20  20  40
HUTCHINSON      61  43  64  52 /  10  20  20  50
NEWTON          60  43  64  51 /  10  20  10  40
ELDORADO        60  44  63  52 /  10  20  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  45  63  53 /  30  20  20  40
RUSSELL         60  42  63  50 /  10  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      60  43  63  50 /  10  20  20  50
SALINA          60  41  65  51 /  10  10  10  50
MCPHERSON       60  42  64  51 /  10  10  10  50
COFFEYVILLE     63  45  61  53 /  20  20  20  30
CHANUTE         61  42  63  52 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            60  42  63  51 /  10  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    62  43  62  52 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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