Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 030437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATED TO INSERT SOME ISO SHOWER AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...FEEL THE ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT MUCH COVERAGE WITH JUST SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR TOKEN STORM. THE MAIN THINGS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS ABOVE 850MB ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES LINGERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WE MAY SEE A REPEAT OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DRIFTING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
AIDED BY A RELATIVELY WEAK LLJ/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AND MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER MILD AND BREEZY DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCT -TSRA ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 21Z. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS IMPACTING MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS. TRENDED POPS LOWER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE COVERAGE
IF ANY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE AT BEST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AND MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. MAINTAINED THE
HIGHEST POPS ON TUE NIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS MONDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KS IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH INTO NEBRASKA AND THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. THE FIRST MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WED SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS. WHILE ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH BEGINS
TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A SERIES OF MORE
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTING
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO ROLL
EAST AND WEAKEN. STILL FEEL THAT SOME VERY ISO ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 09Z. DUE TO HOW ISOLATED IT SHOULD BE
WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS SITES AT THIS TIME. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE
20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  84  61  81 /  10  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      59  85  60  80 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          59  82  60  78 /  10  10  20  30
ELDORADO        59  83  61  80 /  10  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  83  62  81 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         59  86  59  77 /  10  20  50  60
GREAT BEND      59  87  59  78 /  10  20  40  40
SALINA          60  86  60  78 /  10  10  50  50
MCPHERSON       59  84  60  78 /  10  10  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     58  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         58  81  61  79 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            58  81  61  79 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    58  82  62  79 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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