Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 020443
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WHILE THE WARMTH WILL STAY THE DRYNESS WILL GRADUALLY GO AWAY
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE MORE MEANINGFUL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
LATER THIS EVENING...AND MAY SURVIVE WITH THE AID OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MORE WIND
AND WARMTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. BY LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE AFFECTS OF LEAD MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
A SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
GOING MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS IN TRACK WITH THE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND WIND CONTINUING SUNDAY AND NOT SO
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO MONDAY...THE RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UNSETTLED AND A POTENTIALLY ROWDY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTS LIFTING THE INITIAL
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS
DEEPER IN DEPICTING A CLOSED LOW. WHILE DAILY TRENDS WILL
HINGE ON THE MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES...MODEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR RELATIVELY BETTER
CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THE LEAD
TROF TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A LITTLE ABOVE EARLY
MAY CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL/KSLN AROUND DAYBREAK AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WHETHER KHUT/KICT WOULD BE AFFECTED IS
LESS CERTAIN. HIGH BASES AND SHORT DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
PRECLUDED MENTIONING ANY MVFR CONDITION AT THIS TIME...BUT
TRANSIENT/VERY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE IF CORE OF A
HEAVIER SHOWER GOES ACROSS AN AIRFIELD. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      57  82  59  84 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          55  80  59  82 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  81  59  83 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         58  84  59  85 /  20  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      58  85  59  86 /  20  10  10  20
SALINA          57  83  60  85 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  82  59  84 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  80  58  82 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         52  79  58  81 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            52  79  58  81 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    52  79  59  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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