Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 300748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

BUILDING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESSES COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE
THIS PERIOD. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY...WARMEST WEST OF I-135.

INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL TEMPER READINGS
SOME...BUT SOLID 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED. A TRAILING WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS COULD SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER GENERALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OR SEVERE WEATHER BY ANY MEANS
THOUGH DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...MARGINAL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT.

AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS...THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT
SATURDAY...ENDING ANY ISOLATED STORM CHANCES. STOUT SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S WEST OF I-135.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE UPTICK
THIS PERIOD...AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.

THE FIRST ROUND IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST
CHANCES GENERALLY CENTRAL KS...AS A FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROBABLY BE
LACKING WITH THIS FIRST ROUND SO UNSURE ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...BUT MODEST/STRONG CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHEN LOW-LEVEL
JET RAMPS UP. PROBABLY WON`T BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD SEVERE DUE
TO MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MODEST TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF SEVERE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN WEAKER
FLOW ALOFT AND MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...COULD BE
LOOKING AT LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL.

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOOK TO ARRIVE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
FOR BEING 5-6 DAYS OUT...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND GFS ENSEMBLES
ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER FORCING
MAY TEND TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WHICH WOULD
TEND TO HAMPER DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED...GIVEN HIGHER QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
EJECTING TROUGH...SEVERE WORDING IS DEFINITELY WARRANTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AT KRSL. FEW HIGH
BASED CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  50  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      81  49  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          76  49  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        77  49  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  49  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         82  51  78  55 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      82  51  77  55 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          78  49  76  55 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       79  49  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     77  47  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         76  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            76  46  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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