Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  47  69 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  45  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  45  67 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  46  69 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  48  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  64 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  65 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  64 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  44  66 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  80  49  70 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         57  76  47  68 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            58  75  46  67 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  48  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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