Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 011133
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER NORTHWEST KS NEAR SE-MOVING
DECELERATING SURFACE TROF. UPSTAIRS...A RIDGE IS PUNCHING NE FROM
AZ & NM TO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN ALMOST DUE NORTH TO HUDSON BAY WITH
BY FAR THE SHARPEST AMPLITUDE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TO HUDSON BAY. WEAK SE LOWER DECK FLOW HAS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST
OF KS WHICH HAS HELPED TO CAUSE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

TODAY-SUN:
WITH BROADENING MID-UPPER DECK RIDGING SLOWLY TRANSITIONING INTO A
WEAK ZONAL REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS ANY SHOWER &
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE CONFINED TO IA & NEBRASKA & AREAS
TO THE NORTH WHERE MUCH CLOSER TO A SHARPENING UPPER-DECK THAT`LL
SPRINT E FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA REACHING THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE APPROACHING MID-UPER DECK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWN BORDER SAT EVENING A SURFACE TROF
WILL DEVELOP IN A NORTH-SOUTH MANNER CLOSE TO THE CO/KS BORDER AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE. THIS WOULD ENABLE LOWER DECK FLOW TO BECOME DUE
SOUTH & SLOWLY ASSERT ITSELF THIS WEEKEND. A SUCH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS STILL SLATED FOR ALL AREAS THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KS).
THE PATTERN UPSTAIRS OVER THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD IS FEEBLE SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BEHAVE THEMSELVES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT SAGS S/SE INTO CENTRAL KS ON MONDAYAS THE AFORE
MENTIONED UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE SPRINTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH THE UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THEN CROSSES ONTARIO &
QUEBEC MON & MON NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W
MANNER THROUGH NORTHERN & CENTRAL KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES
QUEBEC MON NIGHT THE STALLING FRONT SHOULD EXPERIENCE WARM
FRONTOGENESIS & LIFT N/NW ACROSS NEBRASKA THEN DISSIPATE AS IT
VENTURES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE SOME HIGH-MID CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY SAT
MORNING...AS REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM DYING CONVECTION IN NW KS
DRIFTS SE.  COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COME CLOSE TO KRSL
BUT THINK THINK THIS CHANCE IS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE KRSL
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  55  81  59 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      77  55  82  59 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          76  55  81  59 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        76  55  80  59 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  55  81  60 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         77  56  84  59 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      78  56  85  59 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          77  55  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       76  56  82  59 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  52  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         75  52  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            75  52  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  77  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.