Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 280809
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through This Afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

Upper-level low will move ESE today with some mid/high level cloudiness
affection portions of south-central and southeast Missouri predominantly.
Scattered diurnal cu is also expected to develop by early afternoon
across most of the area.

High temperatures will be primary sensible weather concern and went
above MOS guidance in most areas due to forecast cloud trends mentioned
above. Seasonably cool conditions with highs a touch warmer than Monday
for most areas is expected.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

(Tonight through Thursday)

Main focus will be temps thru the period.

Not many changes to the prev forecast as it still appears to be on
track given the latest guidance. Upper low is progd to drop swd
along the MS Rvr late tonight thru Wed associated with a weak sfc
fnt. Expect rather deep mixing ahead of this fnt and have continued
warm trend for Wed. This s/w may may help support isod to sct
diurnal SHRA across ern portions of the CWA.  Another s/w and
associated backdoor fnt is expected to move swd thru the region on
Thurs. This s/w is stronger than the one on Wed. However, with this
fnt lacking moisture, believe any precip will remain E of the CWA.
As for temps on Thurs, have trended twd a compromise for now with
the GFS as a warmer outlier.

(Friday through Monday)

Mdls prog pattern becoming zonal with the sfc ridge finally moving
ewd and WAA pattern setting up at low levels. This will bring an
increased chance for precip and warmer temps. With precip chances
centered around weak s/ws, timing will be difficult to pin down.
Have therefore kept PoPs on the low end until Sun into Mon as a
stronger trof approaches with an associated cdfnt stretching thru
the region.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

Ridge of high pressure to remain over region through the forecast
period. Vfr conditions to persist with some diurnal cu developing
by mid morning. Otherwise, light and variable winds to pickup and
become northeasterly during the day, before diminishing once again
towards sunset.

Specifics for KSTL:
Ridge of high pressure to remain over region through the forecast
period. Vfr conditions to persist with some diurnal cu developing
by 15z Tuesday. Otherwise, light and variable winds to pickup and become
northeasterly during the day, before diminishing once again
by 01z Wednesday.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     69  48  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
Quincy          70  44  71  46 /   0   0  10   5
Columbia        70  46  72  48 /   0   0   5   0
Jefferson City  70  44  71  47 /   0   0   5   0
Salem           65  44  67  46 /   0   5  10  20
Farmington      64  43  68  45 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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