Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251138 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






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