Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 022332
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK
UP MID MORNING SUNDAY TO AROUND 7-9 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN VFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NO BIG CHANGES COMING IN THE NEAR TERM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THAT WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A DRY AND WARM PATTERN. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMEPRATURES ARE EXPECTED.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THROUGH
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND WILL TEND TO BYPASS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH/WEST. EVEN SO...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL PUT AR BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXPECTED REGARDING WHAT LARGER SCALE FEATURE WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY
FOR THE STATE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL LESSEN...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVING
EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL COME
ON WED AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON WED WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...THOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AT LEAST
MENTION SOME POPS IN THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

BEHIND THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE...A RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH MAY SLIDE
BACK OVER THE SERN CONUS FROM OFF THE COAST OF FL. THIS MAY ACTUALLY
SLIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BACK WEST SOME...WHICH COULD
LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THU AND FRI. THERE DOES REMAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO DO KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR EACH DAY...AND
BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE DECREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY. BY LATER IN THE PERIOD...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
NE FROM THE ROCKIES...ALLOWING FOR MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO BE FELT ACROSS AR. AS A RESULT...MAY SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...WILL KEEP POPS
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




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