Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 030529
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS EXPECTED COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF CLOUDS TO
SPREAD OVER AR WITH THE UPPER W TO NW FLOW...FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AS IT WEAKENS THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE MILDER
TONIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AS WELL AS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND FLOW. LATE
EVENING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK
UP MID MORNING SUNDAY TO AROUND 7-9 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NO BIG CHANGES COMING IN THE NEAR TERM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THAT WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A DRY AND WARM PATTERN. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY PENETRATING THROUGH
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND WILL TEND TO BYPASS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH/WEST. EVEN SO...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL PUT AR BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXPECTED REGARDING WHAT LARGER SCALE FEATURE WILL DOMINATE EACH DAY
FOR THE STATE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL LESSEN...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVING
EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE FIRST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL COME
ON WED AS ONE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ON WED WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...THOUGH SOME PRECIP COULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AT LEAST
MENTION SOME POPS IN THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

BEHIND THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE...A RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH MAY SLIDE
BACK OVER THE SERN CONUS FROM OFF THE COAST OF FL. THIS MAY ACTUALLY
SLIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BACK WEST SOME...WHICH COULD
LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THU AND FRI. THERE DOES REMAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO DO KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR EACH DAY...AND
BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE DECREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY. BY LATER IN THE PERIOD...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
NE FROM THE ROCKIES...ALLOWING FOR MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO BE FELT ACROSS AR. AS A RESULT...MAY SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK...WILL KEEP POPS
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         59  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       58  79  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     60  82  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      58  80  60  80 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  81  59  79 /  10  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        59  81  61  81 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         58  81  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      60  81  62  82 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






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