Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 171949
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
249 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DRYING MONDAY. CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING. THEN TO A LESS
DEGREE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED TO CENTRAL...OVER THE SE TO
NORTHERN AR. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN WITH SOME
CONVECTION SHOWING LIGHT TO SLOW MOVEMENT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE U.S. IS ROTATING UPPER LIFT INTO AR AND
HELPING DEVELOP THE CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME STRETCHING OUT OF
THE LIFT HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE
BEEN SEEN WITH AREA PRECIP WATER VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH.
A LIGHT STEARING FLOW FOR THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO ADDED TO HEAVY
RAIN THREAT AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS LATER AFTERNOON TO
EVENING IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR...THEN LOWERING TONIGHT.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TODAY`S LIFT WILL PUSH OUT OF AR TONIGHT...BUT THEN OVER OK EARLY
SATURDAY THEN TO AR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT IS
SEEN AND CONVECTION CHANCES COME UP. SEVERE STORM THREAT ON
SATURDAY COME UP A BIT...BUT STILL WOULD BE ISOLATED. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN
OVERALL LULL IN THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE AGAIN INCREASING
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS THROUGH AR. A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH A
SPOKE OF STRONGER LIFT PUSHING ACROSS AR. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO
BE THE HIGHEST STORM THREAT...WITH LOWER CHANCES OF LARGE HAIL.
SOME TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BE AT THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
ENTER THE WEST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH ARKANSAS. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S WARMING TO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  73  60  77 /  50  70  60  50
CAMDEN AR         64  75  62  80 /  40  70  60  50
HARRISON AR       59  70  57  74 /  50  70  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  74  61  78 /  50  70  50  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  75  61  79 /  50  70  60  50
MONTICELLO AR     64  74  63  79 /  50  70  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      62  73  60  77 /  40  70  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  71  58  76 /  40  70  50  50
NEWPORT AR        62  73  61  76 /  50  70  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     63  74  62  78 /  50  70  60  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  74  59  78 /  50  70  40  50
SEARCY AR         62  73  60  77 /  50  70  60  50
STUTTGART AR      63  74  62  78 /  50  70  60  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51





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