Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 020829
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER ARKANSAS TODAY AND TOMORROW...WHICH WILL SHOVE THE SURFACE
HIGH OFF TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL OF
THIS MEANS THAT...ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...ARKANSAS
WILL EXPERIENCE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE
AS A PERSISTEN TROUGH SETS UP OUT WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SETS UP IN THE EAST FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LEAD WAVE
HELPING TO ESTABLISH THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA ON MONDAY MORNING...TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SOME
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT THE TRENDS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TO CONTINUALLY SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION INTO ARKANSAS. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIFT WILL BE. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST EAST OF THE
STATE AND STILL HOLDING NOTABLE INFLUENCE OVER THE FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE SPARSE...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE PERIOD WILL INITIATE WITH
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE. UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITH AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. IN BETWEEN IS A
POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE THAT WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

SAID FLOW WILL ALSO BE PULLING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. MODELS ALSO CONSISTENT IN MOVING SEVERAL WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. OF COURSE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THESE
IMPULSES WILL REQUIRE MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAINFALL WILL OVER THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES THANKS TO THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS. LOWS
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S EACH DAY.
MAV/MEX NUMBERS WILL GENERALLY BE FOLLOWED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  53  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         79  55  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       75  53  78  58 /   0  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  55  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     77  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      76  54  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  52  78  58 /   0  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  53  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  52  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  55  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56





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