Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 011520 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. SURFACE NE FLOW CONTINUES INTO AR WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN OVER THE REGION FROM THE NE. A
WEAK FRONT WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH AR...WHILE DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...DUE TO
THE COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING FROM THE NE. ALOFT THE STRONG UPPER
TROUGH HAD MOVED TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WAS SEEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OVERALL UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH A
GRADUALLY WARMING TREND. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A
FEW ELEMENTS...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

.AVIATION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FROM A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO MORE EASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THE ENTIRE DAY. CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MOST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

TAFS WILL BE OUT AT 1120Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE FORTHCOMING THIS MORNING AS
ALL SHORT TERM FORECAST PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO POINT IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING WITH TEMPERATURES INDICATIVE OF THE
EARLY MAY TIME FRAME.

UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES A BROAD FLAT RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST WITH
WHATS LEFT OF IT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN.

RESULT WILL BE THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHT COOLER TODAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS
CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A LEAD WAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE NRN BAJA
PENINSULA EARLY TUE MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
COLORADO BY TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. FROM THERE HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE NOT WELL
AGREED UPON IN THE MODELS...AND IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER A
BROAD BUT OPEN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AS THE EUROPEAN DEPICTS...OR WHETHER A DEEP TROUGH WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH.

THAT SAID...HAVE ONCE AGAIN TRIMMED BACK POPS BOTH SPATIALLY AND IN
TIME AS TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT WOULD
SUGGEST A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. IT NOW APPEARS THAT
TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...AND THAT ANY RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF ENTERING THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE EARLIEST. BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS PUSHED BACK FURTHER WITH FUTURE MODEL
RUNS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. ON THE TEMPERATURE SIDE OF
THINGS...PERSISTENT MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT TO SEE SEASONAL OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
FAIRLY HUMID AS WELL...THOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVELY SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         77  49  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  49  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  48  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  47  76  53 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        70  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  49  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  49  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         71  48  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      71  50  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64









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