Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 241758
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND BE IN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ARKANSAS UNTIL THIS WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE
WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MVFR TO LIFR BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR FORMING
THIS MORNING AND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AR AT THE START OF THE TAF
TIME...THEN THE REST OF AR THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA MOVES FROM
SW AR NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
LATER TODAY...A WARM FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND HELP DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 15 MPH.  (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  84  56  72 /  70  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  89  61  87 /  70  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       60  80  52  70 /  40  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  86  59  84 /  70  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  87  59  79 /  70  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  87  63  85 /  80  30  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      65  86  57  84 /  60  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  82  54  70 /  50  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        63  85  56  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  86  60  82 /  80  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  86  57  79 /  50  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         62  85  57  75 /  80  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      64  86  59  79 /  80  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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