Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 231427
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
927 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD. CHANGES WERE PRIMARILY TO MAX TEMPS AND POPS FOR
TODAY...BASED UPON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL
OUTPUT. 53

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AR AND
WILL AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR TODAY. OVERALL VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE SHOWERS...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM. NORTHERN AR WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY. AN UPPER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND HELP DEVELOP
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AREAS OF AR. ALSO A COLD FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN AR WILL FOCUS SOME OF THE CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE NE TO E
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN BORDER. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO THE NORTH
THE LAST HOUR...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH...BUT IF
MCV/LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH TONIGHT...AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AREA WIDE.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTH.

RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT MOVING IN...AND HAVE KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS
THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM. IT WILL START WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM HAS PUSHED EAST...AND THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS OVER
TEXAS. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW...AND
HAVE KEPT THE LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT TO
TUESDAY...MODEL TIMING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM STRONGER SYSTEM IS A
BIT DIFFERENT. THE GFS HAS IT FASTER THAN THE EURO. HAVE USED BLEND
FOR TIMING. HAVE HELD WITH A CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH AND CLEAN THE AREA OF RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES TO A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO
THE CHANCES OF CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  50  66  62 /  20  30  60  60
CAMDEN AR         69  57  75  68 /  50  30  70  60
HARRISON AR       63  48  67  60 /  20  40  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  54  71  65 /  30  40  70  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  53  71  65 /  40  30  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     70  57  75  68 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNT IDA AR      66  54  71  65 /  20  40  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  49  65  60 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        66  51  67  63 /  20  30  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     62  55  73  67 /  50  30  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  51  69  62 /  30  40  60  50
SEARCY AR         65  51  68  64 /  30  30  70  60
STUTTGART AR      67  54  71  66 /  40  30  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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