Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 221122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM. TODAY A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
INTO AR...AND BRING LOWER CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SYSTEM ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HAVE USED VCSH OR VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY FOR LOCATION AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING NW TO NE AT 5 TO 15 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.., /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE STALLING LATER TODAY. DISTURBANCE
OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST...AND INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE LEAST ON THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY...AS SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS IN THE PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH...AND
BRING ARKANSAS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER THE REGION...MCS POTENTIAL IS HIGH.

WITH THE FRONT MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ABOVE 2
INCHES PER HOUR FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
NOT A MAJOR CONCERN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IF ANY STORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...WITH A DRY START
TO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN TO START THE LONG
TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SUNDAY STARTS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AS AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS A BIT INTO THE REGION. BUT TO THE WEST...A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RAISE CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MODEL TIMING IS DIFFERENT WITH THE
GFS FASTER THAN THE EURO AND HAVE USED A COMPROMISE. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN STAYS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME OF
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON MODEL TIMING...BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE REGION. DRYING LATE TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL START
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY...THEN COOL BACK TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.