Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 141746 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...

CEILINGS WERE SLOWLY RISING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AR...AND AREAS OF
MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS AND MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE SEEN OVER SE AND
NORTHERN AR THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NE TO E AT 5 TO
15 MPH. TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND THE LOWER CLOUDS. ALSO ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN IN SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE TO SE
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. OBSERVATIONS FROM MT HOME HAVE BEEN UNAVAILABLE DUE
TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM AND AMD NOT SKED WILL BE USED UNTIL OBS
RETURN. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST...AND KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TODAY.
WHILE THERE WILL BE ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT...THINK
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.

AS SEVERAL UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME
WILL HAVE THE LOWEST POPS...AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...AND
HAVE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS COMBINED
WITH GULF MOISTURE COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS MONDAY ROLLS AROUND...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT PUSHES PAST ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THAT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
WILL FINISH NEAR SEASONAL AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46










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