Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 031139
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
639 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. ONLY OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING A WARM AND MOIST
RETURN FLOW SETUP SITUATED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL TAKE A DAY OR SO TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT A
HOME ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAVE BEEN TO GRADUALLY PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...WITH ANY DISTURBANCE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIMING MAKING MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST THANKS TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING IN
THE WEST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BETTER...ALBEIT STILL
SMALL...RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST IN WESTERN ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY
AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS MAY HAVE
ENOUGH EASTWARD MOVEMENT...AND GENERATE ENOUGH CONVECTION...TO
PUSH RAIN INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. BUT EVEN THEN...ONLY HAVE
20-30 POPS IN THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS A LITTLE ON THE
MUDDLED SIDE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE EJECTION OF THE
DOMINANT WESTERN US LOW. WHILE THE MODELS DO AGREE IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING QPF ARISE WITH GFS
FAIRLY DRIER VERSUS ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART. WILL TRY TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THIS MORNING.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE NATION AND UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. RESULTANT
UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THRU SAID
FLOW BUT OF COURSE PINNING THESE DOWN IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE.

MODELS ALSO PICKING UP ON A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW THAT WILL
LOOKS TO UNDERCUT THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. THIS
MAY END UP PUMPING UP THE UPPER RIDGE EVEN MORE AND KEEPING
PRECIPITATION AT BAY. A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE TAKEN WITH
POPS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCES OVER THE WEST. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
COMPLICATED PATTERN AND CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEEM
LIKELY.

IN SPITE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA...BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP PULL TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  59  81  60 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         83  59  82  62 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       79  58  79  57 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  59  81  61 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  82  60  82  61 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     82  60  82  63 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      80  58  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  58  81  59 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        80  59  81  61 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     82  60  81  61 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  59  81  59 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         81  58  81  60 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      81  60  81  62 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.