Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301739
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH A FEW GUSTS. SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

TAFS WILL BE OUT AT 1120Z.

FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AT KHOT AND KADF LIKE
SUSPECTED...DESPITE SHOWING SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF FOG FROM THOSE TWO SITES...THOUGH STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF SHOWING OF GROUND FOG IN OBS AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT060 BASES EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
AFTERNOON CU FIELD TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NNW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NEARLY CALM OR A LIGHT NE DRIFT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM FORECAST PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO POINT IN THE DIRECTION
OF A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES INDICATIVE OF THE LATE APRIL AND
EARLY MAY TIME FRAME.

UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL MANITOBA. A DEEP CUT
OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROFFING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WEAKENING AS IT
DOES WHILE THE UPPER LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING.

RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. A DISTURBANCE
WILL CLIP NORTHEAST ARKANSAS LATER TODAY BUT THIS ONE IS EVEN WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAYS AND WILL LEAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 80 ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE BEING
KNOCKED DOWN A LITTLE FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RECOVER
OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH
THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT HAS DECREASED
OVERALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE GENERAL PATTERN IS STILL SOMEWHAT
AGREED UPON...WITH A TROUGH OUT WEST AND THE CENTRAL CONUS LYING
BENEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST MODELS ALSO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEABOARD OR
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WOULD YIELD INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
ANY SYSTEMS EJECTING FROM THAT TROUGH OUT WEST...WHICH HAS INDEED
BEEN THE TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH REGARD TO A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NRN
BAJA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IT WOULD ALSO RESULT IN
CONTINUED RETURN FLOW WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

WITH THAT IN MIND...AFTER A DRY DAY ON MONDAY...HAVE LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUE AND WED TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER/DRIER TREND IN THE
MODELS. SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP ON
TUE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME LOOK
TO BE ON WED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED EJECTING SHORTWAVE GENERATES MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY WESTERN ARKANSAS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN
THEN...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH MAY BE
OVERDONE IF THE SLOWER/DRIER TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  72  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         53  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       46  72  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  74  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     53  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      50  75  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  46  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        48  71  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     52  73  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  75  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         49  72  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      51  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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