Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 171524 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM...EARLIER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE CONVECTION WITH
CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE SEEN A BIT MORE FOCUS OF MORNING CONVECTION
OVER EASTERN AR AND NW AR...WHILE CURRENTLY AGAIN EASTERN TO
NORTHERN AR. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE U.S. IS
ROTATING UPPER LIFT INTO AR AND HELPING DEVELOP CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH SOME STRETCHING OUT OF THE LIFT WILL BE SEEN. ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN WITH THE KLZK 12Z SOUNDING HAVING A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.31 INCHES...WHILE A LIGHT STEARING FLOW TO
THE N TO NE. OVER PARTS OF EASTERN AR...FLOW IS WEAKER AND
CONVECTION IS MOVING LITTLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL ARE BEING MONITORED. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW AN
INCREASE IS SOME CONVECTION POTENTIAL OVER SE TO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
AR THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD...WHILE LOWERING IN
THE SW AR LOCATIONS. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE 70S. WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUDS...CONVECTION CHANCES AND TEMPS WILL LATE MORNING UPDATE.

(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES ALOFT MOVE THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL AND THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION EVEN LESS BEFORE
INCREASING TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE ADVANCING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE COME MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ON RADAR THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK AND
PINE BLUFF. THIS GENERAL CORRIDOR WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL LATER TODAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. DO NOT DOUBT THE
PRESENCE OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE LED ME TO LIMIT POPS TO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ON SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH
A COUPLE OF LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE STATE. AS
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW CLEARS
THE STATE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS WILL
ACTUALLY REPRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ADVECT INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WILL
ALIGN WITH FAVORABLE INCREASES IN OTHER CONVECTIVE INDICES LIKE
SURFACE BASED CAPE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 3000-4000
J/KG RANGE...AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE
TO 30-40KT. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OFF THE CHARTS
BY ANY MEANS...IT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS AND
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES FORECAST...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE OF CONCERN. EVENTUALLY THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
ON A MORE LINEAR FORM AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT
WITH TIME.

THE SHORT TERM WILL FINISH WITH A BRIEF DRY SPELL AS THE STATE
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ABSENCE
OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PATTERN REMAINS A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCES POPS CONTINUING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...MAINLY KEEPING A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...BUT THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT. AS SUCH...A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES THAT MAY
BRING A SHOWER TO PARTS OF THE STATE, PATTERN DOES FLATTEN OUT A BIT
BY THURSDAY AS DEEP TROUGH OR AN UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVES ON SHORE
ALONG THE WEST COAST. REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH KEEPING CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE. WITH PATTERN DAMPENING OUT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR DAYS SIX AND SEVEN. FOLLOWED THE MAV/MEX
NUMBERS FAIRLY CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  61  73  60 /  30  30  70  60
CAMDEN AR         79  64  75  62 /  40  60  70  60
HARRISON AR       75  59  70  57 /  30  50  70  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  63  74  61 /  40  60  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  63  75  61 /  40  50  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     78  64  74  63 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      76  62  73  60 /  40  60  70  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  60  71  58 /  20  40  70  50
NEWPORT AR        78  62  73  61 /  30  30  70  60
PINE BLUFF AR     78  63  74  62 /  40  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  63  74  59 /  40  60  70  40
SEARCY AR         78  62  73  60 /  30  40  70  60
STUTTGART AR      78  63  74  62 /  40  40  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56









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