Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 291558
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1058 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO GET RID OF FROST ADVISORY WORDING
AND UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...AS
CLOUDS ALSO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONTINUE
THINKING THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z...WITH THE WRF A BIT MORE
ENTHUSIASTIC THAN THE HRRR. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT THE
FORECAST WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

SOME MVFR CIGS HAVE LIFTED NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH SEVERAL HRS THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OVER THE STATE TODAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THESE MVFR CIGS TO
LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS SRLY FLOW INCREASES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. NRN
SITES WILL JUST SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED VCSH HERE. FURTHER SOUTH...MENTION SOME PROB30 GROUPS
FOR SHRA/TSRA...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NRN SITES. LLQ MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH 12Z MON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LAST SUNDAY OF THE MONTH IS STARTING OUT A BIT ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD 30S TO A FEW LOWER 40S SHOWING ON THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT
BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE SATURDAY HAVE FINALLY
CLEARED...LEAVING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
STILL CAN NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT SOME FROST OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS IS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
PATCHY IN NATURE.

SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING BOTH WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WITH EACH OTHER. THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT
BE MAKING ANY REAL VALUE ADDED CHANGES TO THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST TODAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
ON THE REBOUND IN RESPONSE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK IN
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT STRADDLING THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY THE END OF THE DAY. NO PRECIPITATION
TODAY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT UNTIL IT
GETS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE WHERE IT WILL
BRIEFLY STALL BEFORE WASHING OUT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AS THE PERIOD
CONCLUDES. EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT TO THE NW OF THE
STATE WILL DROP SLOWLY SE TOWARDS AR...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE NW THU
AND THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE FOR
FRI...BEING SOUTH OF THE STATE FRI NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH FRI...THEN DECREASE POPS FRI NIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
REMAINING LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THU AND
FRI...THEN DECREASE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...NO ORGANIZED SVR WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SVR STORM THU AND FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  45  68  49 /  10  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         80  57  71  57 /  10  40  30  30
HARRISON AR       70  41  68  49 /  10  20   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  51  70  55 /  10  40  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  50  70  53 /  10  40  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     76  57  70  56 /  10  40  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      74  50  70  55 /  10  40  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  42  70  49 /  10  20   0  10
NEWPORT AR        63  45  68  48 /  10  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  53  69  55 /  10  40  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  47  71  52 /  10  30  10  20
SEARCY AR         64  47  69  50 /  10  40  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  50  69  53 /  10  40  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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