Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 012330 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE MINOR. A DRY FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WHILE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

SURFACE NE FLOW CONTINUES INTO AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERING IN OVER THE REGION FROM THE NE. TEMPS TODAY WERE
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH HAD MOVED TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OVERALL UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
WEATHER WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
START A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A NW TO W FLOW...KEEPS
ALL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF AR. ON MONDAY THE NEXT
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HELPS
BRING MORE OF A SW UPPER FLOW TO AR...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND EVENTUALLY AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SRLY FLOW ONGOING AT THE SFC.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUE. HOWEVER..AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN...CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
LATER NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN CONUS...AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE SEEN
AS THESE UPPER WAVES MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDE CHANCES POPS AS EARLY AS WED AS THE FIRST UPPER SHORT
WAVE LIFTS NE OVER THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE CHANCE POPS PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE OVER
PART OF THE STATE. WHILE NOT EVERY DAY AND EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WED THROUGH FRI TIME FRAME...CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST DURING THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE ENTIRE 7-DAY
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SIMILAR EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S EACH DAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





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