Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 041756
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...WITH
WINDS WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BKN CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THE 5TH...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT ONLY VCSH IS NEEDED. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND MAY BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT FROM THE TROUGH AND HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE EASTERN RIDGE SHOULD HOLD THESE FAR ENOUGH WEST SUCH
THAT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN THEN ONLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH A
MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT A PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW PATTERN...WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOW 80S IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES THIS PERIOD
WITH ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE BLOCKY PATTERN OF
LATE BECOMING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. WITH ALL MODELS
BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH SIGNIFICANT TROF/UPPER LOW COMBO OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH RIDDING COVERING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IS AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
WAFFLE AROUND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE DOES
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WESTERN SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT...TURNING INTO MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DOES. TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL THEN DRAG A FRONT THAT MAKES IT ROUGHLY
HALF WAY THROUGH THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE STATE FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
NUMEROUS RIPPLES WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH SAID FLOW KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       81  58  80  59 /  10  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  62  82  63 /  10  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      83  60  81  63 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  59  81  60 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  60  83  62 /  10  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  60  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




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