Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261936
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BECOME A CLOSED
LOW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

AT 15Z THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG EXTREME
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY THE TX/OK BORDER.
BROAD ASCENT IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SEVERE GRADE CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A TON OF RAINFALL BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS. TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS...BUT MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
LARGELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES AND
EVEN SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTH TOWARDS ARKANSAS FROM THE MIDWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL RUN QUITE A WAYS BELOW
NORMAL. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMEST PLACES IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND WILL
STAY IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
ON TUESDAY LOW 60S WILL BE THE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT EVEN THEN ONLY UPPER
60S ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...THOUGH NOT BY THE SAME MAGNITUDE. READINGS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE A DRY FORECAST IS STILL IN THE OFFERING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. PERIOD INITIATES WITH A DEPARTING POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TOUGH OVER THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVENANCES.

UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST AS TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE CAN NOT TOTALLY BE EXCLUDED EARLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BUT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STATE
THAN IT WILL BE AT THE ONSET. STILL...IT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP ALL UPPER WAVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OR JUST A TOUCH ABOVE IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  63  49  62 /  10  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         57  66  51  60 /  30  40  70  60
HARRISON AR       47  61  47  60 /  20  20  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  63  50  60 /  30  40  70  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  64  51  61 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     56  67  52  60 /  20  30  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      53  61  49  60 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  63  48  61 /  10  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        49  64  50  62 /  10  10  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  65  52  60 /  20  20  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  64  49  61 /  30  30  70  50
SEARCY AR         51  64  50  61 /  10  20  50  60
STUTTGART AR      53  65  51  61 /  20  20  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56







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