Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 201652
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NEAR TERM MESO ENVIRONMENT IS STABILIZING NOW THAT THE RAIN
HAS MOVED EAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AS THE
CONVECTIVE BAND MARCHES FURTHER AWAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT
INTO/ACROSS THE AREA ON LOWER TROP WESTERLIES THIS MORNING...THEN
DISSIPATE THIS PM. HOWEVER...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
WILL LEND TOWARD A CONTINUED LINGERING POP IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COLUMN IN MORE EARNEST TONIGHT...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SLOWLY EASTWARD
SHIFTING HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A RETURN POP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE BROADER LONG WAVE CYCLONE OVER THE NE
U.S./GREAT LAKES WILL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...AND IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED POP
REINTRODUCED TUE PM-NITE TO LINGER INTO/THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

60S AND 40S STILL LOOK TO BE THE RULE THRU THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE IMMEDIATE
REGION ARE NOT QUITE AS CONSISTENT. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON THE LARGER SCALE...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
BORDERS THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS
NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LARGE SCALE LOW WILL APPROACH
THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. OF MORE INTEREST TO
US...A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

IT IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE BAJA LOW THAT MODELS EXHIBIT THE MOST
INCONSISTENCY. WITH THE 00Z RUN...THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS MUCH
FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN OR ECMWF AT BRINGING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING LOW EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. IT
IS ALSO QUICKER TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE PREFER TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SLOWER CANADIAN AND ECMWF...BOTH WHICH PRESENT
SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO THEIR PRECEDING RUNS.

THE END RESULT IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD INTO THE ENTIRE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS PASSAGE. AFTER THAT...A
RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.

ENTRENCHED IN THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CANADIAN LOW...THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A COOLER THAN
NORMAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE 60S AT BEST...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A DECK OF
CU/STRATO-CU MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES GENERALLY JUST ABOVE
VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO 5 KTS OR SO
AND VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE OUT AND/OR DISSIPATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW MID CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING
WITH MID CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID
LEVEL WAVE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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