Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 051840
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA AGAIN THIS PM...ALONG WITH
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK LOBE OF PVA CIRCULATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER HIGH
OVER SEMO. THIS MIGHT TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER YET IN THE
OZARKS OR NEARBY FOOTHILLS...SO WE`VE MAINTAINED A 20 POP THERE
TIL THE CLOSE OF THE (DIURNAL HEATING) BUSINESS DAY.

AFTERWARDS...A 583DM H5 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER MID
APPALACHIA...AND RIDGES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
SERVE TO SUPPRESS ANY OF THE BUCKLED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FLOW HEADED
OUR WAY FROM THE CONTINUOUS SOUTHWEST U.S...WHERE THE SOUTHERN JET
STREAM IS OPENING UP FROM...AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROPICALLY INFLUENCED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CIRCULATE
ONTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTAL AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS HELPS WEAKEN THE HIGH...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME OF THAT
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME/EMBEDDED RIPPLES WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE WESTERN CWA WITH A SLGT CHANCE MENTIONABLE ON
THURSDAY...PERHAPS AIDED BY SOME PM HEATING INSTABILITY.

PLEASANTLY WARM LOW-MID 80S/LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM DURATION...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES YIELDS BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE EXTENDED WILL START WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN
THE MID 80S THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND WEAKLY CAPPED
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

DIURNAL BASES FROM 050-070 FT AGL MAY OCCASIONAL BECOME BKN THRU
00Z...BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH LOSS OF FUEL.
MID DECKS FROM NEARBY ISOLATED CONVECTION (IN THE SEMO OZARKS)
MAY PROVIDE A POTENTIAL HIGHER CIG DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH IT`S NOT GENERALLY EXPECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLYS WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 10 KTS ON AVG TODAY...WITH
A POTENTIAL GUST INTO THE TEENS...THEN SLACKEN TO LIGHT TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN DIURNALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PLANNING PERIOD TMRW. HIGH CU BASES MAY AGAIN DEVELOP BY THEN IN
THE 050-070 FT AGL RANGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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