Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS



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