Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 050450
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LOOKS TO REMAIN OF
LITTLE IMPACT TO THE FA THRU THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SATELLITE AND MODELING OF THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOW TWO
PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NORTHERN PIECE IN CANADA/GREAT LAKES AREA WILL SLICE
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST/AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE
OTHER PIECE IS OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S...WHERE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
COMMENCE UPON ITS LANDFALL/MOVEMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE
TELECONNECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVES WILL BE TO CARVE OUT A
BROAD SCALE TROF IN THE WEST...AND ALSO TROF IN THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN...WE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREA...NOT WITHSTANDING A SLGT CHANCE POP
TMRW IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE.

ALSO OF INTEREST...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF FL.
THIS WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE TO TRACK...AS THE GFS MODELS IT/AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTO THE SE U.S. AND UNDER THE RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE OUR TEMPS/DEW POINTS HOVER IN THE
80S/60S THRU THE COURSE OF THE WEEK AS THESE FEATURES TAKE SHAPE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES YIELDS BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE EXTENDED WILL START WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN
THE MID 80S THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN POTENTIAL.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AND WEAKLY CAPPED
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SCT-BKN VFR DECK FROM TIME
TO TIME. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
NEAR KCGI/KPAH. BUT BELIEVE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN GUST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTS SUBSIDED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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