Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 240440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE HELD OFF ANY ADVISORIES FOR FROST AT THIS TIME.
WOULD EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER MOST PLACES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...I.E. POSSIBLE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS FRIDAY. HELD BACK THE
INTRODUCTION OF POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRI WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS ITS
APPROACH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
THEN WE ARE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDING INDICATE A STRONG CAP EAST TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ERODES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CAP DOES ERODE AND THE STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT WITH CAPES >3K J/KG...UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100
KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KNOTS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THEY MAY BE DISCRETE BY
THIS TIME AND NOT HAVE TO COMPETE WITH OTHER STORMS FOR THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY. IF THIS IS THE CASE A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO BECOME SCARCE BY 00Z SUN AND THE
SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF HERE BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. IN SUMMARY IF ANYTHING DOES POP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE STRONG AT THE VERY LEAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER A CHILLY START FRIDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SATURDAY INTO THE 70S IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
RIDGING OVER THE WEST...WITH VARYING CONFIGURATIONS OF TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND RATHER COOL.
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL DEPICT A CLOSED LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF
COAST REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS COULD BE REMOVED FOR SW INDIANA AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
FARTHEST SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...SO IT STILL INDICATES DRY
WEATHER ALL WEEK FOR OUR REGION EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

ON THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND CEILINGS MAY DESCEND TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS IN THE
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEY
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS


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