Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251727

1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Weak cold front to pass through region late this afternoon and
cross the Arkansas border by early this evening. Large swath of
IFR and possible LIFR to rotate southward and affect all TAF sites
starting late this evening as cold air advection saturates near
surface layer. Ceilings then to improve during the morning on




SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Runnels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.