Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 172310
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

We had some pretty decent rainfall over far western Missouri and
southeast Kansas today. Areas around Neosho measured 1.4 to 2
inches in a fairly short amount of time.

Showers were dissipating this afternoon, except for the Bull
Shoals Lake area and northern Arkansas, where shortwave energy was
forcing additional convection in that area.

I think we`re going to need a Flood Watch somewhere for the
weekend. The problem is pinpointing an area where to put it.

A large upper level cyclone will slowly approach the region from
the west, bringing on and off showers and thunderstorms through
the entire weekend.

QPF signals are all over the place, and the large scale lift
doesn`t appear to be very focused over a certain region for a long
enough period of time.

However, given the amount of moisture advecting in from the Gulf,
we think this weekend`s convection will have decent rainfall
rates, and any locations that experiences training convection
could certainly receive some flooding. So for now, we will
allow the overnight shift to re-evaluate, and consider a watch if
needed.

Regarding Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a risk for some
organized severe storms. We still think areas south of Interstate
44 will experience the best environment for severe storms, and
will focus our outlook within the HWO within this region. This
severe storm potential is associated with the approach of an upper
level speed max Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail will be
the primary risk with the more intense storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

We expect dry weather for the Monday through Tuesday morning
periods as northwest flow takes shape.

The moist airmass doesn`t get too far south, and models are
indicating southerly winds to recommence by Tuesday afternoon.

Moist flow across a strong mid level zone of baroclinicity will
cause rain chances once again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

As southwest flow evolves through the work week, moisture will
continue to transport into the Ozarks, bringing rain chances to
the region on a daily basis.

Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours. The only
aviation concern will be for scattered convection possibly after
09z tonight through tomorrow morning. Ceilings for the most part
will drop down to between 3k to 4k feet at most terminals. Will
have to watch trends for BBG which that terminal might see MVFR
ceilings by tomorrow morning. Have prob30 and tempo groups
handling the timing of the scattered convection moving in by
tomorrow morning at all sites. Also may see a drop in visibility
with the rain showers and -TSRA briefly down to 5sm at times.
Winds will remain southerly to southeasterly less than 10 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin





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