Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 222001
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015
A cool Canadian surface high was in the process of filtering into
the Ozarks today and will continue the process as we head into
the overnight hours. Temperatures this afternoon had only warmed
into the 50s across the region with little additional warming
expected into this evening despite the sunny skies.
As the surface high moves nearly overhead tonight, light winds
and cool temperatures will impact the area. Most locations will
see morning lows in the upper 30s to middle 40S, with the exception
of central Missouri. High pressure will move nearly right over the
top of the area with morning lows falling into the middle 30s. An
isolated reading of 32 to 33 degrees would even be possible. There
is the potential for some mid to high cloud cover to move over the
region through most of the overnight hours as noted on the 700mb
RH plots. however, the best areas for clouds will be south of the
area where temperatures will be coolest. Even if the clouds were
to move over central Missouri, the clouds will likely be scattered
in nature and still allow for patchy frost to form.
As a result, a Frost Advisory has been issued for the 4 to 8 AM
period Thursday morning for central Missouri.
Temperatures Thursday will then climb into the lower to middle
60s for tomorrow afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015
A broad upper level ridge will move across the Plains Thursday
into Thursday night and push the cool Canadian high east of the
region. This will allow moisture to return from the Gulf region in
earnest as strong southerly winds bring warmer temperatures and
more moisture into the Ozarks.
Models are in good agreement with developing showers and
thunderstorms along an initially isentropic surface and spreading
east across the region early Friday morning through the day on
Friday as a warm front lift north through the region.
An upper level trough and associated surface low will approach the
region Friday night into Saturday morning. Instability in the warm
sector along with shear as the storm system moves into and through
the region during the evening and overnight Friday into Saturday
will be ample to allow for strong to isolated severe
thunderstorms. However there will be some capping limitation as
the upper trough has a more positive tilt to it. This will produce
generally southwesterly surface winds which are not conducive to
allowing for widespread severe weather. However, there is the
potential for a squall line to develop with high winds and hail
the primary concern as this point.
Generally dry conditions are then expected for the day Saturday
and Sunday, though a few wrap around showers may occur Saturday
afternoon as the storm system final moves east of the Ozarks.
An upper level ridge will then slide over the region for Sunday
into early Monday as another storm system drops into the
Southwestern CONUS. Models remain different on this system with the
ECMWF and Canadian dropping it mostly south of the Ozarks through
mid week with the GFS moving it across the region. Will continue
to watch this over the next few models runs. The primary thin to
not for next week though will be the deep upper level trough over
the eastern half of the country. This will bring a rather cold air
mass into the region for this time of year.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015
Convection from earlier this morning has weakened with only a few
showers remaining over southern MO. Some mid level cloud cover
left in the wake of this mornings activity and will persist
through the mid afternoon. Expecting VFR conditions through the
period. Shortwave energy may cause additional showers to develop
over the southwest portion of the CWA including the 3 TAF sites
late tonight and have included a prob30 group in each of the TAFS.