Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292249

549 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

A weak shortwave now over southeast MO will move quickly off to
the southeast. Seeing some decent cumulus, particularly over the
eastern cwfa, but not expecting much else, maybe a sprinkle or
brief very light shower. Another shortwave will move sse into the
OH Vly by late Thursday, but modest pop chances look with this
look to stay well east of the area.

Weak high pressure over the Plains will move east into the region
on Thursday with quiet weather. Used some bias corrected guidance
resulting in a bit more of a spread in the diurnal temperature
swing with lower dew points at times.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

The high amplitude upper level flow pattern in place now is still
progged to become more zonal by the weekend as a shortwave knocks
down the sharp upper ridge now in place off to our west. Some
light showers may try to limp into eastern KS/MO Fri night into Sat
with the approaching weakening wave, but the main focus for even
modest qpf still looks to be to our north.

A gradual increase in low level moisture is expected to take
place over the weekend into early next week with a persistent warm
advection regime. In general, guidance is holding back long wave
troughing a bit, but the overall upper flow is still expected to
back to the w and sw with time next week. A lead shortwave
(initialized well off the CA coast) is expected to move northeast
ahead of the deepening west coast long wave trough reaching the
Rockies or High Plains by 12z Wed, but progged placement of
individual features are still all over the place. In general rain/tstm
chances on a day-to-day basis will gradually increase late in this

A warming trend is expected late this week into the weekend with
above normal temperatures expected next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 547 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

Afternoon cumulus were on the wane prior to the onset of the 00z
TAFS...and am expecting a clear sky overnight for all 3 forecast
locations.. Weak high pressure will be overhead with a light and
variable wind, becoming northerly on Thursday morning.




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