Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251148
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A nearly vertically-stacked area of low pressure is located over
northeastern Kansas early this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop and rotate around this feature, but so far, dry
air aloft (evident on water vapor) has limited development across
most of the forecast area this morning.  A few showers/storms have
managed to develop across the periphery of the CWA, and this trend
should continue through daybreak.

As that area of low pressure slowly moves east across central
Missouri today, a cold front will begin to push south toward the
area. Precipitation should generally be confined to areas close to
the surface low, though a brief stray shower isn`t beyond question
along the front.  For the most part, however, the daytime hours
should be dry for the southwestern 2/3 of the forecast area.  The
close proximity of the surface low will also result in a rather
windy day, with west winds sustained between 15 and 20 MPH, with
gusts between 30 and 35 MPH today.  Temperatures today will vary
considerably north to south given variations in cloud cover,
precipitation, and frontal timing, with highs in the upper 60s
across central Missouri, and near 80 across the Arkansas state line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Sunday should bring cooler and dry conditions, as surface high
pressure noses south into the area. Winds will again be gusty, with
easterly flow gusting up to 25 MPH at times.  Temperatures Sunday
will be on the cool side of seasonable, with highs in the low 60s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into
Tuesday, as a slow moving upper level low traverses the southern
Plains.  The Ozarks should be on the northern edge of the
precipitation, with shower/thunderstorm chances confined to areas
southwest of a Pittsburg to Branson line.  Easterly flow at the
surface will help keep temperatures rather cool, with highs in the
low 60s.

By the middle of the week, the upper level pattern will become
increasingly amplified, with a deepening surface trough across New
England and a strengthening surface ridge over the southwestern US
and Intermountain West. This should result in a few days of dry
weather to end the week, with temperatures right around seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Several items will affect area aerodromes today. First off is low
level wind shear transitioning to gusty southwest winds. 12z KSGF
raob indicates 40kt about 1000 feet off the ground and this will
result in low level wind shear quickly transitioning to gusty
southwest winds in the next couple of hours. These winds will
shift to a more westerly component heading into this afternoon as
low pressure moves east across northern Missouri. Rain chances
today look best to the north and east of JLN/SGF/BBG. Heading into
this evening, guidance is hinting strongly at an IFR (possibly
LIFR) stratus deck sinking southward into the region as the
aforementioned low exits to the east/southeast. Have introduced
predominate IFR conditions around/just after 06z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan




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