Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151141

641 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A weak shortwave lifting ne through the region today will bring a
good chance of light to occasionally moderate showers, particularly
over southern MO. HRRR radar sim output looks pretty solid in
terms of precip coverage and MOS guidance pops are fairly high,
especially this morning. The wfo blended output is somewhat lower.
Could be a rumble of thunder or two in south central MO, but
mainly just rw/rw-. Significant precip should end from sw to ne
late today and this evening.

Some fog potential is there for tonight with residual low level
moisture and a possible clearing sky late. Something for the next
shift to take a closer look at.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Global models ECMWF/GFS/GEM have tended to slow down the eastward
progress just a bit with the upstream cutoff upper low expected to
move into the central Rockies today. Downstream upper level
ridging should limit precip chances Thursday and Thursday night
(still non-zero but low) with a warming trend also expected.

As the upper low shifts east precip chances will increase Friday and
into the weekend. A shortwave moving southeast from western Canada
is still expected to phase with and open up the southern stream
cutoff and shift the upper level trough axis east of the region
Monday morning.

Cooler than normal temperatures are then expected Monday and
Tuesday as a Canadian air mass settles in over the Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Showers will move across the regions aerodromes through much of
today as a shortwave moves across the region. The increased lift
and moisture will allow for MVFR ceilings and visibilities through
this evening, especially where showers occur. The shortwave will
move east of the region for the overnight hours with lingering
MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities though the showers will
shift east along with the shortwave. Will need to monitor for fog
development for early Thursday morning, especially if cloud cover
clears off as projected by some of the model guidance.




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