Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

Temperatures from late morning into the afternoon hours were
increased into the middle 60s primarily north of interstate 44 due
to patchy cloud nature and increased sunshine. Wind speeds were
also increased as most locations were gusting to around 20 mph.
Light showers still look to remain confined to extreme southwest
Missouri through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

An upper level shortwave/shear axis over OK/north TX will move
northeast into eastern KS/MO tonight/Wednesday. Weak lift and light
precip will fight dry low level air with a ne sfc wind and sfc
ridge over the region. Clouds and the best chances for precip
will be over the southern and sw cwfa today. The clouds will also
hold temperatures down and went with a slightly modified blend of
MOS guidance which keeps highs in the upper 50s for some areas.
Warmest highs should be the northern cwfa (60s).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

The aforementioned shortwave will move lift northeast through the
area Wednesday with continued chances for light rain/showers.

Guidance continues to show a high amplitude/"blocky" pattern over
the east Pacific and CONUS during this period. A strong shortwave
now moving onshore over OR/WA/CA is expected to dig southeast
before cutting off somewhere over the central Rockies by early
Thursday. Downstream mid level height rises should allow a warming
trend to develop for Thursday with only very modest chances for
rain.

The cutoff low will slowly shift east and be more of an influence
on area weather with time, particularly over the weekend. The ops
GFS is faster moving the low east versus the ECMWF and GEM, but in
either case the low eventually opens up in response to another
upstream shortwave moving into the upper Midwest early next week.
This should finally sweep precip east of the area with cool
temperatures by Monday. We could see some decent rainfall amounts
gradually accumulate in some spots over the weekend, but overall
higher amounts look to be south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon with gusty
northeast surface winds.  Showers could affect JLN and BBG
after 00z and SGF after 09z as an upper level trough pushes toward
the area. A gradual lowering to MVFR conditions will occur
generally after 09z. Ceilings will then likely continue to fall
to IFR conditions closer to 12z Wednesday as the upper level
system moves overhead.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Foster/Burchfield
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster/Burchfield






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