Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 060828
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

...Unsettled Weather through the Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

An unsettled weather pattern will continue to evolve today as the
Ozarks region remains sandwiched between upper level ridging in
the eastern U.S. and a large upper level trough out west.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms were widespread from the Red
River Valley north into central Kansas early Wednesday. This
activity was associated with a vorticity lobe swinging north
around a shortwave trough lifting north across the central high
plains and within an axis of strong moisture transport.

The showers and embedded thunder will spread slowly eastward
across eastern Kansas and into far western Missouri this morning
as the the vorticity lobe lifts north and the low level jet veers
a bit. Rainfall will be most widespread this morning west of
Highway 65 then diminish this afternoon as the vorticity lobe
lifts north of the area. Rainfall coverage will be considerably
less farther east across the eastern Ozarks. Instability will be
rather marginal with surface based CAPE up to near 1000 J/KG. This
along with weak deep layer shear will inhibit any severe weather
development.

Temperatures will be warmest today in the eastern Ozarks where
there will be less coverage of showers and more sunshine.

Expect convection to increase again tonight across the plains as a
series of disturbances continue to track north on the eastern
periphery of the western trough and the low level jet
strengthens. Expect most of the Ozarks and Osage Plains to remain
dry much of tonight but the showers over the Plains may edge
eastward into eastern Kansas and far western Missouri.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will persist the remainder of the
week into the weekend as the upper level trough out west
continues to evolve and eventually shift to the east. The western
trough will actually undergo some deepening late this week into
Saturday which will maintain a southwesterly flow aloft across our
region. A series of minor shortwaves or vorticity lobes will
continue to track through this flow resulting intermittent chances
for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Repetitive
rounds of rainfall could result in moderate to heavy rainfall
totals particularly across eastern Kansas into far western
Missouri. The potential for severe weather looks to be marginal at
best at this time.

Drier weather will return by later Monday or Tuesday as the upper
trough lifts to the northeast and drags a front across the
region.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Convection still off to the west of the area with the upper level
wave, but should begin to push into the area towards morning,
affecting the JLN terminal and eventually SGF/BBG by late morning.
Expecting overall VFR conditions to persist, but could see some
MVFR within the convection.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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