Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 011056
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Our weather will become increasingly unsettled today as a shortwave
trough tracks northeast from western Oklahoma and a warm front
lifts northward. Convection was ongoing this morning across central
and portions of eastern Oklahoma. This activity will continue a
diminishing trend as it spreads northeastward toward the Ozarks.
However expect activity to become invigorated during the day with
the help of surface heating and the approach of the shortwave. The
result will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
today with the greatest coverage across far southern Missouri.
Deep layer shear will be relatively weak today and the risk for
severe storm development is low. Cloud cover and scattered convection
will impact temperatures today but expect 70s area wide.
A broad upper level trough will take shape out west into the northern
Plains today into tonight in response to a strong zonal jet stream.
A lead shortwave will track into the northern Plains tonight while
a front takes across the Plain states. Widespread convection will
develop along this front tonight then spread southeastward. The
leading edge of this activity will reach southeastern Kansas into
central Missouri late tonight into early Thursday morning. Expect
this activity to be in a diminishing mode and present only a
limited risk for severe weather late tonight into early Thursday
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
The cold front will continue a slow southward migration toward the Ozarks
Thursday while the upper pattern becomes increasingly zonal. Lingering
morning convection and cloud debris will have an impact on warming
potential and the extent of surface destabilization Thursday afternoon
as the front nearly stalls from southeastern Kansas into central
Missouri. However a continued moistening of the air mass, steepening
lapse rates and at least some surface heating will yield afternoon
CAPE values around 1500 J/KG. This along with increasing deep
layer shear on the order of 40 to 50 kts will be supportive of
robust updrafts and the risk for strong to severe storms mainly
across southern Missouri.
Expect the convection to continue if not increase into Thursday
evening as a low amplitude shortwave trough approaches from the
west. Hail and damaging winds look to be the primary risk with any
severe storms that develop. Veering low level flow will be an inhibiting
factor to tornadic potential.
The potential for multiple rounds of rainfall and training convection
could lead to heavy rainfall totals and the risk for flooding. Total
rainfall amounts of one to two inches could be common. The flood
potential will be closely monitored.
The primary shortwave trough axis will swing across the region Friday
which will push the cold front to the south. Rain and perhaps some
embedded thunder will linger into Friday morning with rainfall
diminishing from the west during the day. The lingering precipitation
coupled with cold air advection will lead to a much cooler day.
Dry weather will return Saturday and Sunday but temperatures will
remain on the cooler side. Friday night will be the coldest night
with lows falling into the lower and middle 30s which could result
in a risk for frost.
Active weather will return early into the middle of next week as
another upper level trough evolves to our west.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: Clouds continue to spread over the
area early this morning, but will remain in the VFR range through
much of the forecast period.
A weak disturbance is currently pushing northeast across eastern
Oklahoma early this morning. As this disturbance pushes into the
area scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread
northeast generally from the mid morning hours into the early
afternoon hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible mainly this evening across far southern Missouri.Under
any thunderstorm flight conditions will likely lower into the
MVFR range and possibly the IFR range briefly but conditions will