Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192354 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Unsettled weather this evening, turning cooler overnight.

Strong, well developed vorticity maximum over northeastern
Oklahoma continues to march to the east into western Arkansas.
This feature associated with the longwave trough that has hung
out to our west the past several days. With this trough now on the
move, a cold front is entering from the northwest.

We are continuing to monitor two distinct areas of convection. The
first is associated with the cold front. A narrow band of scattered
showers and thunderstorms have lined up along this boundary,
marching to the east at about 30mph. The atmosphere over the
region is not ideal (most unstable CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg -
give or take), but there is enough instability to keep activity
going for the next few hours. In general, we expect the convection
along the front to gradually weakening and lessening in coverage
as it heads to the east. There have been occasional, short lived
spikes with a few cells along the front. These will have the
potential to produce hail to the size of dimes and wind gusts up
to 45mph, but this will likely be the exception rather than the
rule.

The better quality convection will continue just to our south
across Arkansas. Will continue to monitor to see if any of the
strongest activity will clip our southernmost counties. At this
time, there is nothing imminent, and the window of opportunity
will be closing from west to east through the evening hours. If a
storm can sneak into the area from Arkansas, hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts to 60mph are possible. Again, this risk is
conditional on any activity entering from Arkansas and the risk is
confined to far southern Missouri.

Finally, there have been sporadic reports of wind gusts up to
around 45 mph along and just behind the cold front. While reports
of such gusts have not been widespread, they will be possible as
the cold front moves across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A mid level shortwave trough will track from Kansas and across
Missouri tonight while dragging an associated cold front across
the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the passage of the front and shortwave trough with its
associated cold core this evening. The greatest coverage of
convection is expected across far southern Missouri this evening.
Will have to monitor the potential of strong storms moving out of
northern Arkansas into far south central Missouri. The primary
risk within strong to marginally severe storms this evening will
be hail.

Convection will taper off quickly following the frontal passage
as the evening progresses. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop
behind the front during the night.

Rather cool and blustery conditions are in store for Monday in the
wake of the cold frontal passage. High temperatures will only
reach the lower and middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A cool and unsettled weather pattern will become established this
coming week as a deep upper low evolves over the Great Lakes
region and a northwesterly flow regime develops.

A series of disturbances streaking through this flow will bring
intervals of cloud cover and intermittent chances for showers
Tuesday into Thursday.

An upper level trough will approach the area late in the week into
Saturday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive
later Friday as this system lifts across the lower Missouri River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Unsettled weather conditions are expected over the next 3-6 hours
as a strong storm system and associated surface cold front move
through the region. See the mesoscale discussion above for a more
detailed discussion. For aviation interest, the main concerns will
be wind gusts associated with the cold front. There have been
sporadic reports of gusts up to around 45 mph. This has not been a
widespread issue, but something to keep in mind as the front comes
through this evening. Otherwise, showers and storms will be short
lived at JLN/SGF, with a few rounds of showers/storms expected at
BBG this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the
cold front, with a brief period of MVFR ceilings possible.
Clearing is expected overnight. West-northwest winds will be gusty
from the mid Monday morning onward.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan






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