Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252349

649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.

We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.

Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.

For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.

The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.

For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.

The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Surface low pressure is pushing
east into southwestern Kentucky early this evening. On the back
side of the low gusty west to northwesterly winds have occurred
this afternoon. These winds will slack off and not be gusty in nature this
evening into Sunday.

Low level clouds are also spreading south across northeastern
Kansas and northwestern Missouri early this evening. These clouds
will continue to spread to the south as the surface low continues
to track off to the southeast. These low level clouds will take a
little time to spread south into the TAF sites with VFR conditions
expected for much of the evening hours.

Overnight ceilings will lower into the MVFR then IFR range as the
low level clouds over spread the area. Light fog may develop also
with the lower ceilings, but the primary reduction in flight
categories will be with ceilings. The low level clouds will occur into
Sunday morning with VFR conditions expected to return by Sunday




LONG TERM...Cramer
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