Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270449

1149 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

Stratus was hanging tough over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures struggled to warm out of the 50s
this afternoon, while northeast breezes persisted.

For tonight, a large upper level low pressure system will track
across New Mexico and into the Texas panhandle. This movement will
force showers and thunderstorms over Texas and Oklahoma. Some
heavy rain is expected in western and central Oklahoma, where
forecasts are calling for 2.50 inches.

It appears as though the northern edge of this precipitation
shield will be confined to Oklahoma and southern Kansas through
tonight, with a low end chance for light rain spilling into far
southwest Missouri. Therefore we will only carry some minor precip
chances down around Pineville through tonight.

Cloud cover and northeast breezes should continue, as temperatures
range from near 50 degrees in McDonald County, to the lower 40s in
central Missouri.

This upper low will continue east as it attempts to fill over
time. Models are getting closer with one another in diagnosing how
far north the rain shield will make it.

There is a chance that locations along the Arkansas border will
receive some minor precipitation heading into Monday and Tuesday.
The bulk of the rain should stay across I-20 and I-40 corridors
prior the this upper low finally shifting away from the Ozarks.
Therefore, most of the region should remain dry through Tuesday,
with cooler than normal temperatures.

Look for highs in the 60s both Monday and Tuesday, under mostly
cloudy skies and light northeast winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)

Both the GFS and the ECMWF show a second speed max that approaches
the area from the north on Wednesday. If this feature forces
precipitation, it will be very light since moisture availability
will be lacking.

A warming trend will start on Thursday, setting the stage for a
fantastic weekend next week. Models have been consistent in
showing a large ridge of high pressure to slowly build over the
nation`s mid section late next week. This will boost temperatures
into the 70s by Friday and especially Saturday. A return of light
southerly winds is also expected.

No precipitation is forecasted from Wednesday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonight through Monday as high
pressure centered to the north of the area dominates our weather.
A storm system tracking from the southern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley will blanket the area with mid to high
level clouds. A steady to occasionally gusty northeast surface
wind will persist through Monday. There may be some marginal low
level wind shear early Monday morning.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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