Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160455 AAA

1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

Issued at 617 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Along with updates to PoPs for this evening to account for
continuing showers/drizzle east of U.S. 65, have added fog to the
forecast for the overnight hours for portions of the CWA. Think
we`ll see fog start to develop late this evening across SE Kansas
and SW/W Missouri where skies have started to clear, with an
expansion to the east across south central Missouri late tonight.
Visibilities below a mile, perhaps approaching 1/2 mile or less,
can be expected at times late tonight.

Clearing trends this evening as well as vis trends overnight will
continued to be watched closely.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

Showers were exiting the Ozarks region this afternoon in response
to the passage of a weak upper level disturbance. We left in some
miner pops over the eastern Ozarks for this evening`s period as
some of the short term models were signaling some QPF in that
area, created by weak lift still to come. If anyone does receive
rain, it would range from a trace to just a few hundredths of an

We will also need to watch for clearing overnight. Light winds and
clear skies would lead to radiation fog development. Right now
we`re not too confident in skies clearing enough for fog
development, but the evening forecasters will need to watch this
risk closely.

Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Flow quickly evolves into an unusual split flow pattern tomorrow
on through the weekend. An upper low digs into the Great Basin,
popping short term ridging over southern Missouri. This will bring
mostly sunny skies to the Ozarks tomorrow, with highs in the 70s.
Surface winds will be light and variable.

Southerly winds will commence tomorrow night as the upper level
low shifts closer to the region. Anticyclonic flow around this
feature will also transport moisture in from the Gulf.

This will lead to showers and thunderstorm chances heading into
Friday and through the weekend. I`m not sure if we`ll be able to
generate sufficient instability across southern Missouri for an
organized episode of severe storms anytime this weekend. Therefore
we will leave severe storms out of the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the moment.

Split flow continues into next work week with a possible break
from rain chances Monday and Tuesday, with additional rain chances
starting Wednesday or Thursday, as energy approaches from the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Primary forecast challenge over the next few hours will be fog
potential. Currently, stratus build down is underway. In
addition, in areas where skies cleared late this afternoon,
crossover temperatures are being approached, leading to fog
development. Stratus is attempting to fill back in across
portions of the area, as a result these two processes will
continue through the overnight hours. Will continue trend toward
fog during the overnight hours, with a slower onset at JLN. Fog
will lift and stratus will break up during the daylight hours of
Thursday morning. Winds will be light and out of the south
through the forecast.




LONG TERM...Cramer
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