Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 150505

1205 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A weakening upper level low is currently over Oklahoma slowly
moving northward. Radars continue to show scattered light rain
showers across the region. A few peaks of sun are evident through
the clouds but most of the area seeing mostly cloudy skies with
cool temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.

There are no big changes or thinking with the latest forecast
update. The upper level low will continue to move northward
through tomorrow. Scattered light rain showers will be possible
tonight and at least the first half of the day tomorrow. Rainfall
amounts will be on the light side between a trace to maybe a tenth
or two of an inch of rainfall. There are no impactful hazards
expected tonight or tomorrow. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
through tomorrow and will keep temperatures around average in the
middle to upper 60s on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

Thursday is still looking like it will be the pick day of this
week. Partly cloudy skies are expected and warmer temperatures
with highs in the lower to upper 70s expected. We will be in
between weather systems on Thursday.

Clouds and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will return
back on Friday as a stronger upper level low pressure system
begins to move out of the southern Rockies region into the
southern Plains. The latest model runs have kinda flipped flopped
with the ECMWF being more closed off low with this system slowly
moving across the central U.S. this weekend and the GFS is a more
progressive upper level wave. Either way...decent rain chances
will come Friday afternoon lasting through at least Saturday
night. Saturday still looks breezy and wet across the Ozarks. The
GFS moves this system out of the area on Sunday while the ECMWF is
slower with rain chances continuing through Sunday.

Instability will be very limited for the only expect
general thunderstorms. Rainfall will average between one and two
inches possible. Temperatures will be cooler this weekend with the
added rain and cloud cover around. High pressure will move in by
early next week with a drier airmass and pleasant weather to start
off early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

An upper level disturbance will continue to bring scattered rain
showers to the region through Wednesday. Occasional MVFR
visibilities can be expected with heavier showers on Wednesday.
Ceilings will also lower into the MVFR category late tonight with
IFR then expected at Branson by early Wednesday morning. IFR
potential at Springfield and Joplin is a bit lower. Ceilings may
then improve for a time later Wednesday afternoon but will tend to
lower again Wednesday evening. Partial clearing will also be
possible starting late Wednesday evening. If this occurs, it may
open the door to fog potential.




SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.