Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 182032
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015
...More Showers & Storms Through Sunday Night then Cooler...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms continued to decrease into
the afternoon. However a band of scattered showers and storms persisted
along a 925-850 MB convergence axis that stretched north to south
east of the Highway 65 corridor and in advance of a mid level vorticity
lobe lifting northeast across the area. Expect convection through
early evening to be focused along and ahead of these features
across south central Missouri. This 925-850 MB convergence axis
may become the focus for additional development later tonight
across the eastern Ozarks as another vorticity lobe lifts
northeast toward southeastern Missouri. Coverage of precipitation
will remain more isolated elsewhere much of tonight. However there
may be increase in convection from the west into southeastern
Kansas into far southwest late tonight as convection across the
Plains shifts eastward.
The closed upper level low now over eastern Colorado will open up
and track eastward toward Missouri on Sunday. Expect the coverage
of convection to increase Sunday as synoptic scale lift increases
with the aide of an increasingly diffluennt upper flow and the
approach of vorticity maxima.
Deep layer shear will increase Sunday as the mid level flow
strengthens and lapse rates steepen as temperatures aloft cool in
response to the approaching upper level trough.
The question is the extent of instability that will develop. The
potential for ongoing convection and cloud cover may limit surface
heating and resulting instability. However if sufficient
instability can be realized then ingredients would be in place for
at least a few severe storms.
At this time the greatest potential for strong to severe storms
will be across far southern Missouri or generally along and south
of Interstate 44. The risk for severe weather could decrease or
increase depending on the amount of destabilization. The primary
risks with any severe storms that can develop would damaging winds
and large hail.
With some areas already receiving moderate to heavy rainfall the
past couple of days...the risk for localized flooding will have to
be monitored particularly across far southwestern Missouri.
Showers and some thunder will linger into Sunday night as the
upper level trough and associated cold front track across the
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015
Much cooler weather will prevail heading into early next week as
an upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes and maintains a
northwesterly flow aloft across the region. This cooler weather
will persist most of next week. Weather conditions could also be
rather unsettled as disturbances slide southeastward around the
periphery of the upper trough. This will bring intervals clouds and
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times mid through
late week. However this activity is expected to be spotty in
Temperatures could fall into the upper 30s Monday night. Frost is
not expected at this time but this potential should be monitored.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015
Pilots can expect unsettled weather conditions to continue through
tonight and Sunday as a storm system slowly approaches the region.
Showers and intervals of MVFR conditions will continue into early
this afternoon. Some improvement in conditions are expected by mid
afternoon into the evening. However expect areas of lower ceilings
and patchy fog late tonight into early Sunday morning to result in
areas of MVFR conditions.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will return by Sunday afternoon.