Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161736

1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

The near term concern is fog/stratus trends. METSAT imagery shows
stratus hanging on over the vast majority of the area so far, but
where holes in the overcast have occurred, have seem some airports
at least briefly drop below a half mile visibility. Stratus build
down may also be a concern in higher elevation terrain in southern
MO. The best chances for dense fog in the near term look to be
where breaks occur or around the edge of the stratus field. Areas
over central MO (KAIZ/KVIH) look a bit drier in the low levels.
Will watch trends for a possible advisory.

We should see fog burn off with a decrease in clouds later this morning.
Warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon with height rises
ahead of a large cutoff low over the central Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

The only notable changes to the forecast look to be associated
with the onset of showers/tstms as a lead impulse rotates around
the approaching upper level. Guidance trends have been to slow
onset time with the upper low initially hanging back a bit. Only
have modest pops for the daytime hours Friday and even then only
for the western cwfa late in the day. With the slower onset, have
also adjusted temperatures upward.

Rain chances will increase in earnest Friday night into early
Saturday as the first of a couple shortwaves move through the
region. The first will pivot nne ahead of the main upper low. The
second on Sunday will be the upper low itself as it opens up while
phasing with an approaching system digging southeast into the
upper Midwest. Some guidance indicates some decent overall
rainfall amounts, and will need to watch trends. WPC guidance for
total rainfall is widespread 1-2 inches and if realized this may
lead to low area/low water crossing flooding in some of the usual
prone spots.

Drier but cooler air will work it`s way in for Monday/Tuesday as
a large upper level trough/closed low is expected to be centered
over/near the Great Lakes. Some small pops are in place for
Wednesday as the southern stream of the upper level pattern starts
to become active again.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

Fog and low stratus that affected all three terminals this morning
has begun to mix out this afternoon. Once the stratus dissipates early
this afternoon...VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon
and early evening. Fog and low stratus become an issue yet again
overnight and early Friday...especially over the Branson and
Springfield terminals. LIFR ceilings are expected at both Branson
and Springfield with IFR visibilities possible at Branson. Like
today, conditions will improve by late morning or early afternoon
Friday at all terminals.




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