Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191126
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slowed approach of mid and upper level clouds has allowed good
radiational cooling and the development of fog in between
the convective clusters over the west and eastern portions of the
CWA. Clouds and early morning precipitation may delay the fog
burning off a tad...but visibilities will improve shortly after
the morning commute.

Overall forecast falling in line with previous thinking. Main
short term challenge tied to coverage of thunderstorm activity
this morning followed by potential for marginally severe storms
this afternoon.

Storms approaching from the west overnight have maintained an
outflow dominant structure that has lead to an overall easterly
development into far western MO at 08z as storms form along the
outflow boundaries then a general decrease in coverage due to the
lack of instability. A somewhat better concentration of showers
and a few weak thunderstorms associated with another vorticity
lobe over south central MO will also slowly drift northwestward
this morning as well.

Diffuse upper waves will pass through forecast area through
tonight leading to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Of note will be the main shortwave that crosses
southern MO late this afternoon into tonight. While signals exist
for some organized storms to the south of I44 given the 800-1200
MLCAPE as mid levels cool and 30-40 KT 0-6KM shear...the amount of
CIN a concern especially given the potential for showers during
the day ahead of the main wave. Main impact for any strong to low
end severe will be hail. Precipitation to then end west to east
tonight as upper low lifts northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Zonal to weak northwest flow to dominate through midweek with the
potential for weak shortwaves to generate some light rain. More
significant precipitation is expected from Friday into the
weekend as another weakening closed low in the southern stream
approaches.

Clearing skies and light winds will result in a much cooler
temperatures Monday night. While widespread frost is not
expected...sheltered areas may see some middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A few showers will remain possible early this morning around
Branson with pockets of IFR ceilings also expected. VFR conditions
are then expected across southern Missouri from mid-morning
through early afternoon. A cold front will then sweep through the
area from late this afternoon into early this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front with winds becoming gusty
out of the northwest. Once the showers and thunderstorms end this
evening, weather models indicate a band of MVFR ceilings then
moving through the region tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann





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