Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231720
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Upper level height rises will overspread the area today bringing
dry conditions to most of the Ozarks. The one exception may be
far southern Missouri where weak isentropic upglide along an old
850 mb frontal boundary may result in an isolated shower or
thunderstorm. High temperatures today will be highly dependent on
cloud coverage. Areas of central Missouri will see the least
amount of cloud cover which should result in highs in the lower to
middle 60s. Areas closer to the Arkansas border will struggle to
reach the 60 degree mark.

Upper level height falls will then overspread the central and
southern Plains starting tonight as a short wave trough moves
out of the Desert Southwest. A low level jet will develop and
strengthen which will promote elevated convection breaking out
across the central and southern Plains. This activity will spread
into western Missouri later tonight as that low level jet noses
into the region. One other point of emphasis will be increasing
southeasterly surface winds. Local winds around the Springfield
area will likely become rather gusty due to local terrain effects
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

That elevated convection will then continue to shift east across
the remainder of the Ozarks Friday morning. The convection is then
largely expected to end from west to east from about mid morning
Friday into early Friday afternoon. There may then be a general
lull in activity as an elevated mixed layer (EML) advects into the
region and suppresses surface based convection. Temperatures on
Friday should rebound and warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s
across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas as a warm front
lifts northeast through the area. Temperatures across the eastern
Ozarks will be held down due to more cloud cover and a later end
time to the precipitation.

Attention then turns to a developing surface low pressure across
the central High Plains. This will lead to a windy day across the
region as surface pressure gradients really tighten up. This low
will track east across Kansas Friday evening along that warm
front. The position of the front and track of the low are still in
question...but models are starting to hone in on a slightly more
north position/track. At this time it appears that the front
should set up fairly close to...or just south of I-70 with the
surface low reaching the KC metro area by around 12 UTC Friday
morning.

As the low moves east across Kansas due to the approaching short
wave trough, surface based convection should initiate near a
triple point along or just west of the I-35 corridor in Kansas
sometime late Friday afternoon or Friday evening. Additional
convection may fire farther south along a dry line into Oklahoma,
but capping strength remains a concern.

Thunderstorms that develop to our west will likely become severe
given strong deep layer shear and moderate instability.
Supercells will be the primary convective mode initially, but some
upscale growth into line segments will be possible...especially
near the triple point where more convective coverage/cold pool
conglomeration will be favored.

Our biggest concern for severe potential will be across extreme
southeastern Kansas into west-central Missouri later Friday
evening/Friday night in closer proximity to that triple
point...although it is possible that the greatest severe threat
remains just to our north. It will be a close call. Farther south
across the remainder of the Ozarks, there may not be much in the
way of convective coverage Friday night if convective allowing
mesoscale models are correct.

A lingering threat for strong to severe storms may then persist
into Saturday depending on when that system and an associated
cold front clear the region. A later departure may lead to an
increase in instability ahead of that cold front. Otherwise, a dry
end to the weekend is then expected as we see a brief period of
upper level ridging.

Global models then continue to struggle with the track and timing
of the next bout of upper level energy for early next week. The
general trend has been to track an upper level low farther south
towards the I-20 corridor. We have maintained lower end PoPs for
now early next week, but they may have to be trimmed if the
southward trend continues. Temperatures for the first half of next
week will generally be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Winds starting to increase and become southeasterly at the TAF
locations. The increased wind was in relation to the pressure
gradient tightening up with the departing high pressure and
developing low pressure in the high Plains. A low level jet will
develop overnight and a warm front will begin to lift north
through the area on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in association with the low level jet overnight and into
Friday morning but should clear by mid to late morning. The area
will then become capped after the warm front moves through to the
north towards midday Friday and the end of the 18z TAF. Generally
expecting VFR conditions outside of convection, but may see some
MVFR develop within showers/thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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